Populations are going to shift inland, towards lakes, higher elevations and northern latitudes. Rainforests and woodlands are also places to avoid, due to fire risk. The researchers show that, depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, ‘1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 years.’ They add that, ‘in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience mean average temperatures in the Sahara.’Īs a general rule, people will need to move away from the equator, and from coastlines, small islands (which will shrink in size), and arid or desert regions. This global niche is where human populations have concentrated for millennia, including for the entirety of human civilization, so it’s unsurprising that our crops, livestock and other economic practices are ideally adapted to these conditions. The optimum climate for human productivity-the best conditions for both agricultural and nonagricultural output-turns out to be an average temperature of 11☌ to 15☌, according to a 2020 study. Global heating is shifting the geographical position of our species’ temperature niche northwards, and people will follow. By 2100 it will be a different planet, so let’s focus on some of the livable options. Bear in mind that many places will be uncomfortable if not intolerable by 2050-around the lifespan of most mortgages-we need to start planning where we make our homes now. Some places, though, will be more easily adaptable to these changes, while others will become entirely uninhabitable fairly quickly. Extreme events are already occurring around the world and will continue to hit “safe” places. Everywhere will undergo some kind of transformation in response to changes in the climate, whether through direct impacts or the indirect result of being part of a globally interconnected biophysical and socioeconomic system. The bad news is that no place on Earth will be unaffected by climate change.
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